Climate Refugees in Northern and Central America - University of California Alianza MX

Climate Refugees in Northern and Central America

By Andrea Martínez, Isabel Martín, Victoria Rosas and Denise Barrales

Introduction

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns, produced by natural causes like volcano eruptions and sun activity changes. Since the 1800’s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas that produce greenhouse gases in excess. These changes pose significant challenges to our ability to adapt, preserve biodiversity, ensure water availability, and address other critical issues.
Many solutions involving technology have been developed in the last years concerning the mitigation of these greenhouse gases; economic models in which the environmental preservation as well as social responsibility are being implemented to reshape consumption patterns worldwide. Raising awareness and disseminating information are crucial to addressing this global challenge.
One urgent issue is the current situation that face climate refugees, people who are forced to leave their location due to environmental changes caused by climate change. The lack of a clear definition and public acknowledgment has also provided extra challenges to take action. Throughout this investigation, in-depth research was made to explore the definition of climate refugees as well as the current situation in the Dry Corridor and the Mexican Community “El Bosque” with the finality that people reading this become aware of the effects that climate change has.

Defining Climate Refugees

To grasp the significance of a clear definition, it’s essential to distinguish between common terms like migration, forced migration, and displacement. Starting with migration it is defined as:

“The movement of persons away from their place of usual residence, either across an international border or within a State, to a new residence”. (Module 1 What Is Migration?: Resources, n.d.).

In other words, it only represents the change of residence of a group of people or an individual. Nevertheless, forced migration is defined by the International Organization of Migration (IOM) as:

“A migratory movement which, although the drivers can be diverse, involves force, compulsion, or coercion” (IOM Glossary on Migration, 2019, p. 56).

It is important to add that this term is not an international legal concept, but is commonly used to describe the movements of refugees, displaced personsand, in some instances, victims of trafficking. Displacement, on the other hand, defined also by the IOM states:

“The movement of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disasters” (IOM Glossary on Migration, 2019, p. 77).
The foundation for acknowledgment resides in the past terminologies, it is imperative to apply those concepts only in the situations that are required. Misusing terms like “migration” and “displacement” can blur important distinctions, making it harder to address specific issues effectively. The careful selection of these terms makes a difference in constructing awareness in society and ensures that the appropriate context is applied to different situations.

The definition of refugee given by the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees mainly focuses on the persecution of people due to their race, nationality, or political and religious beliefs. This definition was later improved by the 1967 Protocol to include those who have fled their countries for other reasons. Other protection documents like the Cartagena Declaration of 1984 and the Stockholm Declaration embrace the possibility of expansion of the term due to the urgent recognition of human rights.
Environmental Refugees were defined until 1985 by the United Nations Environment Program:

“Those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardized their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life” (Hinnawi, 1985).

Climate Refugees and Environmental Refugees are often referred as the same, although some authors defer on the semantics, Docherty et al. (2009) for example state that the definition of a ‘climate refugee’ should encompass: being forced to migrate, temporarily or permanently relocating, crossing borders, facing disruptions linked to climate change, dealing with sudden or gradual environmental disturbances, and a high likelihood that human activities have contributed to these disruptions.
However, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) suggests the use of the term “migrants for environmental reasons” to refer to individuals or groups of people who, due to sudden or gradual environmental changes that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are compelled to leave their usual places of residence or choose to do so voluntarily, whether temporarily or permanently, and move to another location within their own country or abroad (IOM, 2007).
The terminology ‘environmentally/climate displaced person’ has gained popularity, but it doesn’t involve the government as well as rights and obligations when the displacement occurs across nations, nevertheless, it is helpful when it occurs within a nation, as it gives the possibility to be categorized as a IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons).
Natural disasters produced by climate change are devastating for whole communities, and some countries have improved their migratory laws and refugee definition to include such events. An outstanding example of this terminology transition is represented in Argentina’s Law of Migration NO.25871, implemented after Hurricane Mitch and the Haitian Crisis. This rule states:

“Despite not requiring international protection, they are temporarily unable to return to their countries of origin due to prevailing humanitarian conditions or the consequences caused by natural or man-made environmental disasters” (Política Migratoria Argentina 2004).

Climatic Events

For the future, specifically by the year 2060, UNEP estimates that there could be 50 million environmental migrants in Africa (Brown, 2008). Globally, by 2050, Myers (2005) calculates that, considering the increased effects of climate change, there could be up to 200 million displaced people due to disruptions of monsoon systems and other rainfall systems, unusually severe and prolonged droughts, as well as rising sea levels and coastal flooding.
For Mexico, a study published by the U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform indicated that part of the 900,000 people who migrate annually from arid and semi-arid regions did so due to desertification affecting their agricultural lands (Leighton and Notini, 1994). Other studies conducted on a smaller scale have highlighted different reasons for migration. For example, in Chiapas, in the municipalities of Huixtla (Figure 1), Motozintla, Tapachula, and Tuzantán, people interviewed about their potential relocation mentioned that environmental degradation and sudden natural disasters (such as Hurricane Stan in 2005) could influence their decision to move. Similarly, in two localities in Zacatecas, responses indicated that rainfall and temperature patterns had changed over the past two decades, seriously affecting the poorest people who relied on subsistence farming for their food. As a result, they had considered the possibility of migrating both within and outside the country (EACH-FOR, 2009).
Climate refugees need urgent protection and the formalization of an acknowledged term that reunites the main characteristics imperative to achieve a change in politics, and migration policies to guarantee basic human rights.

Figure 1: Municipality of Huixtla after Hurricane Stan.

Case Study 1: Dry Corridor (El Corredor Seco)

Central America’s dry corridor is a region facing the brunt of climate change impacts resulting in an influx of climate migrants to the United States that cannot be ignored. The dry corridor (Corredor Seco) is a climatic subregion of Central America that stretches through Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras (Figure 2). Today half of the migrants from Latin America migrating to the United States are from the dry corridor. In a 10 year period from 2007 to 2017 immigration from the region to the US grew by 25%. This migration trend is expected to continue, with climate change making this region only drier and hotter. These three countries were ranked in the top twenty most climate-vulnerable by the Global Climate Risk Index. While there are a variety of socioeconomic push factors, the underlying climate vulnerability factor is crucial to understanding migration from this region and planning for resiliency.

Figure 2: Map of the dry corridor via the United Nations Food and Agriculture Program.

The dry corridor gets its name from its vulnerability to climatic events like El Niño. El Niño, a climate pattern that results in extreme weather, is expected to persist longer due to climate change. As a result, climate models predict rainfall in the region will drop 10-50% by 2100. In the dry corridor drought compounds with poverty to create vulnerable conditions. There is a high reliance on subsistence agriculture so climatic changes can be catastrophic to food security. In 2019 El Niño destroyed over half of the crops in the region, which corresponded with an increased migration rate for that year. In drought scenarios, significant portions of the population will have reduced access to food leading to malnutrition. Drought may also lead to higher risks of water borne diseases. In 2023 UNICEF predicted 1.7 million people in the region are at risk of facing humanitarian needs due to drought. Therefore push factors like food insecurity and disease may appear social on the surface but climate increases vulnerability to these factors.

Immigration to the United States

For the residents of the dry corridor who choose to migrate the journey is not easy. Over half of those who migrate attempt to enter the United States. As a result of the immigration system only about 25% of those migrants will be able to settle in the United Status. Thus this paints a picture of further displacement for migrants who return with now fewer resources. For the thousands of migrants who are able to settle in the US the effects are generational. The psychological effects are deep since the overwhelming majority of migrants are families and unaccompanied minors (Figure 3).

Figure 3: A Guatemalan man plants corn along a sloped terrain as his niece watches from behind. Via James Rodriguez The Guardian

It’s difficult to disentangle the effects of climate, poverty, and violence as push factors for outmigration but you don’t need to. Climate change is known as a threat multiplier because it exasperates preexisting conditions. Issues of poverty, education, public health and anti-indigeneity can be treated at the local level to prevent displacement. If families do choose to migrate the United States must understand the new challenges of climate refugees. The dry corridor is yet another example of how those who are least responsible for climate change are facing the biggest impacts. If the US continues along this emission path it’s responsible for the impacts like climate refugees. Foreign policy should support the resilience of communities in the dry corridor to prevent displacement. Likewise, immigration policies should be developed to support the settlement of climate refugees.

Case Study 2: “Comunidad Del Bosque”

Mexico has been identified as highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (First and Second Communication, NC1/NC2 to the UNFCCC), such as the increase in sea surface temperature and level, the intensification of hurricanes and changes in water precipitation cycles (De Miguel & Galindo, 2021). One of the direct effects of these impacts, such as floods and droughts, as well as climate-related disasters, is forced mobility. According to World Bank figures, it is expected that by 2050, disasters related to climate changes caused by anthropogenic causes will cause the displacement of 3.1 million people, however, from 2008 to 2021 alone, 2.2 million Mexicans have already been forced to leave their places of origin for these reasons (Enciso, 2024).
Among these figures is the original population of the Bosque community, located in Tabasco, a state that has a significant percentage of its territory classified as having a high degree of exposure to climate change, which makes it an area of priority attention. The town is located in the municipality of Centla, which has become the first community in Mexico where climate displacement was formally recognized and will be the first entire town that will be forced to leave its community as a result of global warming in Mexico (Risco, 2024). This fishing community has faced an accelerated process of coastal erosion since 2019, with the sea “devouring” homes and public spaces, forcing the population to be relocated for safety (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Aerial image of comunidad del bosque, Tabasco via El Universal.

Government Innaction

In 2022, faced with the risk posed by the rapid rise in sea level, the community called on the three levels of government to receive support to cover basic needs, as they are without constant access to electricity and water, without drainage, and children without education. Since that year, they have been demanding their relocation and despite the fact that the Congress of Tabasco unanimously approved a ruling for the relocation of this population – recognizing it as the first climate-displaced community in our country – and despite having a site for the transfer of families, they have still not been relocated. This is the result of a notable lack of government coordination and the lack of a public policy aimed at providing attention – through established protocols – to cases of climate displacement (GreenPeace Mexico, 2023).
The government’s inactivity forced them to seek international instances, so in February of this year – with the support of civil society organizations – they took the case to a historic hearing before the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), where they asked that it be established that “States have the obligation to develop adaptation policies” to efficiently address internal displacement processes due to climate impacts. (Méndez, 2024) This is crucial since the case of the Bosque community is not isolated; they are the first but will not be the last to need to be relocated due to rising sea levels and other consequences of climate change, such as droughts, storms and floods.
The Tabasco families continue to await a fair and dignified relocation process and organizations such as Greenpeace and Nuestro Futuro are negotiating so that this continues to be a fishing community, despite being located in an area without a sea front, since it has been their economic support and a key axis of their social dynamics. The experience of this community should speed up the efforts of the Mexican government to ensure that legislation on climate change and disasters – such as the General Law on Climate Change and the General Law on Civil Protection – adequately considers internally displaced persons.

Conclusions

Due to the lack of awareness surrounding the term “climate refugee,” its impacts are often underestimated. However, increasing recognition of this term may help address the issue of climate change from a key social perspective. The impacts of climate change extend beyond environmental effects; they are also reshaping social behaviors within the communities to which we belong. It is important to emphasize that these impacts are not uniform; they affect different communities and groups in varying ways.
One of the most serious consequences is related to human migration patterns, forcing individuals to leave their homes against their will and leading to significant socio-economic problems. This report demonstrates the urgent need to recognize and protect individuals displaced by environmental changes while clearly distinguishing between terms such as migration and forced migration. The authors believe that this clarity will ultimately facilitate the formulation of effective policies that protect communities like El Corredor Seco and Comunidad del Bosque, as well as the growing number of climate refugees worldwide.
Climate change undoubtedly presents socio-economic challenges, and it is crucial to engage in recognizing the disproportionate effects it causes. There is a pressing demand for a response from governments and international organizations to ensure that the rights of climate refugees are acknowledged and that they receive appropriate assistance and support.

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